Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Popular vote margin of victory on Kalshi
If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%? · Democratic by 9.0% or more | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 153,384 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 7.0% to 7.99%? · Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 52,254 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 8.0% to 8.99%? · Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 45,882 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 6.0% to 6.99%? · Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 39,232 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%? · Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 26,738 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%? · Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 16,877 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%? · Republican by 0.01% to 0.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 16,229 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%? · Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15,031 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 3.0% to 3.99%? · Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 12,678 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%? · Republican by 1.0% to 1.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 12,563 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 4.0% to 4.99%? · Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 10,961 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 6.0% to 6.99%? · Republican by 6.0% to 6.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,716 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 2.0% to 2.99%? · Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10,632 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 2.0% to 2.99%? · Republican by 2.0% to 2.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10,501 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 3.0% to 3.99%? · Republican by 3.0% to 3.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 9,823 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 4.0% to 4.99%? · Republican by 4.0% to 4.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,848 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 7.0% to 7.99%? · Republican by 7.0% to 7.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,592 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%? · Republican by 5.0% to 5.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,152 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 8.0% to 8.99%? · Republican by 8.0% to 8.99% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,116 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%? · Republican by 9.0% or more | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,910 | May 06, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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