Markets › Kalshi › Elections
New Scottish referendum on Kalshi
If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: UK Government.
Market says (typical open contract)
11%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
21% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.12 | 11.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Scottish referendum called before 2027? · Before 2027 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 24,720 | Jan 02, 04:59 UTC |
| New Scottish referendum called before 2030? · Before 2030 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Jan 02, 04:59 UTC |
| New Scottish referendum called before 2029? · Before 2029 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Jan 02, 04:59 UTC |
| New Scottish referendum called before 2028? · Before 2028 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jan 02, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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