What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.70.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Gio Lopez on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Gio Lopez records the most passing touchdowns in the 2026 ACC regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Conference championship games, bowl games, and college football playoff games do not count. If two or more players tie, each tied player's market will settle at $1.00 divided by the number of tied players. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 149 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$4.70	1.1%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Gio Lopez	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ethan Grunkemeyer	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Beau Pribula	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Steve Angeli	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Davis Warren	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Kevin Jennings	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Mason Heintschel	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
CJ Bailey	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Billy Edwards Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Darian Mensah	78¢	78%	1.6¢	—	44%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Lincoln Kienholz	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alberto Mendoza	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ashton Daniels	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Walker Eget	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Christopher Vizzina	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Mason McKenzie	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Gio Lopez	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ethan Grunkemeyer	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Beau Pribula	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Steve Angeli	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Davis Warren	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Kevin Jennings	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Mason Heintschel	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
CJ Bailey	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Billy Edwards Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Darian Mensah	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Lincoln Kienholz	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alberto Mendoza	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ashton Daniels	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Walker Eget	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Christopher Vizzina	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Mason McKenzie	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Sawyer Seidl	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Bill Davis	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Sawyer Seidl	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Marcellous Hawkins	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Bill Davis	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jekail Middlebrook	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 149 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.