What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.70.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Colton Joseph on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Colton Joseph records the most passing touchdowns in the 2026 Big Ten regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Conference championship games, bowl games, and college football playoff games do not count. If two or more players tie, each tied player's market will settle at $1.00 divided by the number of tied players. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 148 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$4.70	1.1%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Colton Joseph	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Demond Williams Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jayden Maiava	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Nico Iamaleava	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Dylan Lonergan	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ryan Browne	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Rocco Becht	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Dante Moore	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Julian Sayin	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Aidan Chiles	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Anthony Colandrea	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Drake Lindsey	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alessio Milivojevic	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Bryce Underwood	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Malik Washington	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Hank Brown	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Josh Hoover	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Katin Houser	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Colton Joseph	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Demond Williams Jr.	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Jayden Maiava	69¢	69%	2.0¢	—	62%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Nico Iamaleava	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Dylan Lonergan	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ryan Browne	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Rocco Becht	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Dante Moore	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Julian Sayin	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Aidan Chiles	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Anthony Colandrea	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Drake Lindsey	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alessio Milivojevic	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Bryce Underwood	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Malik Washington	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Hank Brown	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Josh Hoover	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Katin Houser	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Abu Sama III	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Abu Sama III	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Darrion Dupree	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Darrion Dupree	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 148 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.