What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.66.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Keelon Russell on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Keelon Russell records the most passing touchdowns in the 2026 SEC regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Conference championship games, bowl games, and college football playoff games do not count. If two or more players tie, each tied player's market will settle at $1.00 divided by the number of tied players. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 162 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.2¢	$4.66	2.2%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Keelon Russell	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Byrum Brown	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Gunner Stockton	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Kenny Minchey	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Sam Leavitt	94¢	94%	0.5¢	—	12%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Austin Simmons	67¢	67%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
John Mateer	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Trinidad Chambliss	84¢	84%	1.3¢	—	32%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
LaNorris Sellers	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Faizon Brandon	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Arch Manning	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Marcel Reed	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	8%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Blaze Berlowitz	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
KJ Jackson	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Aaron Philo	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Kamario Taylor	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Keelon Russell	96¢	96%	0.4¢	—	8%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Byrum Brown	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Gunner Stockton	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Kenny Minchey	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Sam Leavitt	42¢	42%	2.3¢	—	84%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Austin Simmons	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
John Mateer	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Trinidad Chambliss	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
LaNorris Sellers	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Faizon Brandon	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Arch Manning	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Marcel Reed	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Blaze Berlowitz	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
KJ Jackson	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Aaron Philo	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Kamario Taylor	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Sedrick Alexander	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Rueben Owens II	18¢	18%	1.4¢	—	36%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Hollywood Smothers	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Raleek Brown	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Javin Gordon	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
DeSean Bishop	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Matt Fuller	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Sedrick Alexander	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 162 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.