Markets › Polymarket US › Sports
Arizona Regular Season Win Total on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Arizona finishes the 2026 Pro Football regular season with over 6.5 wins. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 147 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 57¢ (now) | 2.3¢ | $2.04 | 59.3% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Regular Season Win Total | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Arizona Regular Season Win Total | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Arizona Regular Season Win Total | 79¢ | 79% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Arizona Regular Season Win Total | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Win Total | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Win Total | 16¢ | 16% | 1.3¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Win Total | 27¢ | 27% | 1.9¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Win Total | 50¢ | 50% | 2.4¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Win Total | 76¢ | 76% | 1.7¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Baltimore Regular Season Win Total | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Buffalo Regular Season Win Total | 97¢ | 97% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Baltimore Regular Season Win Total | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Buffalo Regular Season Win Total | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Baltimore Regular Season Win Total | 15¢ | 15% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Buffalo Regular Season Win Total | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Carolina Regular Season Win Total | 10¢ | 10% | 0.9¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Buffalo Regular Season Win Total | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Carolina Regular Season Win Total | 22¢ | 22% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Buffalo Regular Season Win Total | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Carolina Regular Season Win Total | 43¢ | 43% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Carolina Regular Season Win Total | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Chicago Regular Season Win Total | 65¢ | 65% | 2.2¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Carolina Regular Season Win Total | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Chicago Regular Season Win Total | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Chicago Regular Season Win Total | 96¢ | 96% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati Regular Season Win Total | 61¢ | 61% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Chicago Regular Season Win Total | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati Regular Season Win Total | 77¢ | 77% | 1.7¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Chicago Regular Season Win Total | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati Regular Season Win Total | 91¢ | 91% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati Regular Season Win Total | 95¢ | 95% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati Regular Season Win Total | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cleveland Regular Season Win Total | 37¢ | 37% | 2.2¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cleveland Regular Season Win Total | 79¢ | 79% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cleveland Regular Season Win Total | 88¢ | 88% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Dallas Regular Season Win Total | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Cleveland Regular Season Win Total | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Dallas Regular Season Win Total | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Dallas Regular Season Win Total | 17¢ | 17% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Denver Regular Season Win Total | 71¢ | 71% | 2.0¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 147 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.