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UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 2026 on Polymarket US

If Diego Lopes holds the UFC Featherweight Title on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by the UFC. Only the undisputed champion is recognized for resolution purposes; an interim champion does not qualify unless elevated to undisputed status by the governing body. This market resolves Yes if Diego Lopes is the undisputed champion recognized by the governing body, having won the title before December 31, 2026 and not having lost it by 11:59 PM EST, wins the title on December 31, 2026 with the result standing at 11:59 PM EST, or is suspended but not stripped of the title. This market resolves No if Diego Lopes is stripped of the title, loses the

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 202692¢92%0.7¢—16%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20263¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
UFC Featherweight Champion on Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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