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Second-best AI Company end of November on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Alibaba is ranked #2 by Lab Rank on the Arena AI Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The ranking is determined by the "Lab Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with the "Labs" view selected and Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs). If multiple companies are tied on Lab Rank, the company whose highest-ranked model has the highest Score (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard) will be considered ranked higher. If a tie remains, the company who

Market says (typical open contract)
90%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢ (now)0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Second-best AI Company end of November?90¢90%0.9¢—20%0Dec 14, 17:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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