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Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Florida Gators qualify for the semifinals of the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. If the listed team does not qualify for or compete in the tournament, the market will settle to No. If the tournament is cancelled, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from NCAA.

Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 73 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)0.5¢$4.466.5%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers33¢33%2.1¢—66%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers35¢35%2.2¢—70%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers48¢48%2.4¢—96%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers14¢14%1.2¢—29%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers24¢24%1.7¢—47%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers24¢24%1.7¢—47%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers55¢55%2.4¢—90%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers15¢15%1.2¢—30%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers14¢14%1.1¢—28%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers4¢4%0.3¢—7%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers8¢8%0.7¢—17%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers15¢15%1.2¢—31%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers9¢9%0.8¢—19%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers8¢8%0.7¢—16%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers9¢9%0.8¢—18%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers2¢2%0.1¢—3%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers69¢69%2.0¢—62%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers1¢1%0.1¢—1%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers10¢10%0.9¢—21%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers1¢1%0.1¢—3%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers7¢7%0.6¢—13%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers41¢41%2.3¢—83%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC
Men's College Basketball Final Four Qualifiers1¢1%0.1¢—1%0Apr 18, 03:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 73 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.