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Will the Rio Noguchi cover -1.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Rio Noguchi covers a -1.5 game spread across the full Rio Noguchi vs Daniel Michalski ATP match scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 8:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match does not begin due to a walkover, withdrawal, or cancellation, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If a player retires or is disqualified during the match and the market can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed, the market will settle accordingly; otherwise the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two day
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 34¢ (now) | 2.1¢ | $3.14 | 36.1% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover -1.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover 1.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover -4.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover 4.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 67¢ | 67% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover -7.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover 7.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover -1.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the Rio Noguchi cover 1.5 vs the Daniel Michalski in Rio Noguchi vs. Daniel Michalski? | 84¢ | 84% | 1.3¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 23, 06:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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