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Will the Arizona State cover -27.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Arizona State covers a -27.5 point spread in the Arizona State vs UCF college football game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 3:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 77 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 60¢ (now) | 2.3¢ | $1.90 | 62.3% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Arizona State cover -27.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -23.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 10¢ | 10% | 0.8¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -21.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -20.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -19.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -17.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -16.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 10¢ | 10% | 0.9¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -14.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 13¢ | 13% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -13.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 16¢ | 16% | 1.2¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -10.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 18¢ | 18% | 1.4¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -9.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 21¢ | 21% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -8.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 22¢ | 22% | 1.7¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -7.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 24¢ | 24% | 1.7¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -6.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 28¢ | 28% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -5.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 30¢ | 30% | 2.0¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -4.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 32¢ | 32% | 2.0¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -3.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -2.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 40¢ | 40% | 2.3¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover -1.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 41¢ | 41% | 2.3¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 1.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 44¢ | 44% | 2.3¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 2.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 48¢ | 48% | 2.4¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 3.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 55¢ | 55% | 2.4¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 4.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 57¢ | 57% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 5.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 58¢ | 58% | 2.3¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 6.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 7.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 68¢ | 68% | 2.0¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 8.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 72¢ | 72% | 1.9¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 9.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 74¢ | 74% | 1.9¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 10.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 76¢ | 76% | 1.8¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 13.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 80¢ | 80% | 1.5¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 14.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 83¢ | 83% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 16.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 86¢ | 86% | 1.2¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 17.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 88¢ | 88% | 1.0¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 19.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 90¢ | 90% | 0.8¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 20.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 91¢ | 91% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 21.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 94¢ | 94% | 0.6¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 23.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 96¢ | 96% | 0.4¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 27.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 28.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
| Will the Arizona State cover 30.5 vs the UCF in Arizona State vs. UCF? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 29, 01:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 77 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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