What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 64¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $1.71.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 66% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 64%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the UMass cover -8.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if UMass covers a -8.5 point spread in the UMass vs Toledo college football game scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 7:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

64%

Median YES price across 77 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

72% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
64¢ (now)	2.2¢	$1.71	66.2%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the UMass cover -8.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	11%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover -7.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover -6.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	15%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover -5.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover -4.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	10¢	10%	0.8¢	—	19%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover -3.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	23%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover -2.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	14¢	14%	1.2¢	—	29%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover -1.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	16¢	16%	1.2¢	—	31%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 1.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 2.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 3.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	24¢	24%	1.8¢	—	49%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 4.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	55%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 5.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	59%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 6.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	32¢	32%	2.0¢	—	63%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 7.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 8.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	79%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 9.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 10.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	43¢	43%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 13.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 14.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	52¢	52%	2.4¢	—	95%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 16.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 17.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	62¢	62%	2.2¢	—	77%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 19.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	65¢	65%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 20.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	65%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 21.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 23.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 27.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	82¢	82%	1.4¢	—	35%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 28.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	86¢	86%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 30.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	88¢	88%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 33.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	92¢	92%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 35.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	7%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 38.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 41.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 45.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 48.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 49.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 51.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 54.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 57.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC
Will the UMass cover 60.5 vs the Toledo in UMass vs. Toledo?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 26, 05:30 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 77 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.