What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 59¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $1.95.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 61% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 59%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the UNLV cover -10.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if UNLV covers a -10.5 point spread in the UNLV vs New Mexico college football game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 7:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

59%

Median YES price across 77 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

82% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
59¢ (now)	2.3¢	$1.95	61.3%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the UNLV cover -10.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	11%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -9.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	6¢	6%	0.6¢	—	13%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -8.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	15%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -7.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	6¢	6%	0.6¢	—	13%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -6.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	17%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -5.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -4.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -3.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	23%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -2.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	14¢	14%	1.2¢	—	29%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover -1.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	16¢	16%	1.2¢	—	31%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 1.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 2.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	39%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 3.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 4.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	57%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 5.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 6.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	31¢	31%	2.0¢	—	62%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 7.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	37¢	37%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 8.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	79%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 9.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	79%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 10.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	43¢	43%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 13.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 14.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	52¢	52%	2.4¢	—	95%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 16.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	54¢	54%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 17.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	61¢	61%	2.3¢	—	78%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 19.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	66¢	66%	2.1¢	—	67%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 20.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	68¢	68%	2.0¢	—	63%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 21.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	72¢	72%	1.9¢	—	57%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 23.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	76¢	76%	1.8¢	—	49%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 27.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	84¢	84%	1.3¢	—	33%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 28.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	87¢	87%	1.1¢	—	26%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 30.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	89¢	89%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 33.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	94¢	94%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 35.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 38.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 41.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 45.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 48.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 49.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 51.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC
Will the UNLV cover 54.5 vs the New Mexico in UNLV vs. New Mexico?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 05:30 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 77 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.