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Will the MIL Bucks cover 14.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Milwaukee Bucks covers a +14.5 point spread in the Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks professional basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 7:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 49¢ (now) | 2.4¢ | $2.42 | 51.4% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 14.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 45¢ | 45% | 2.4¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover -13.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover -11.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover -9.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover -7.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover -5.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover -3.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover -1.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 9¢ | 9% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 2.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 15¢ | 15% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 4.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 19¢ | 19% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 6.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 24¢ | 24% | 1.7¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 8.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 29¢ | 29% | 2.0¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 9.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 29¢ | 29% | 2.0¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 10.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 32¢ | 32% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 11.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 36¢ | 36% | 2.2¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 12.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 39¢ | 39% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 13.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 42¢ | 42% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 15.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 49¢ | 49% | 2.4¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 16.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 53¢ | 53% | 2.4¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 17.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 57¢ | 57% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 18.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 19.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 63¢ | 63% | 2.2¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 20.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 65¢ | 65% | 2.2¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 22.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 72¢ | 72% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 24.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 76¢ | 76% | 1.7¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 26.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 80¢ | 80% | 1.5¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 28.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 30.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 88¢ | 88% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 32.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 92¢ | 92% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 34.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 93¢ | 93% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 36.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 96¢ | 96% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 38.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 97¢ | 97% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 40.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
| Will the MIL Bucks cover 42.5 vs the NY Knicks in MIL Bucks vs. NY Knicks? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 25, 00:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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