Markets › Polymarket US › Sports
Will the OKC Thunder cover -1.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Oklahoma City Thunder covers a -1.5 point spread in the Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers professional basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 11:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 49¢ (now) | 2.4¢ | $2.42 | 51.4% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -1.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 53¢ | 53% | 2.4¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -29.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -27.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -25.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -23.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -21.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -19.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 9¢ | 9% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -17.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 11¢ | 11% | 0.9¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -15.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 15¢ | 15% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -13.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 19¢ | 19% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -11.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 23¢ | 23% | 1.7¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -9.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 28¢ | 28% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -7.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 32¢ | 32% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -6.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 36¢ | 36% | 2.2¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -5.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 39¢ | 39% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -4.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 42¢ | 42% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -3.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 45¢ | 45% | 2.4¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover -2.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 49¢ | 49% | 2.4¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 1.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 58¢ | 58% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 2.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 61¢ | 61% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 3.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 64¢ | 64% | 2.2¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 4.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 67¢ | 67% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 6.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 72¢ | 72% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 8.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 77¢ | 77% | 1.7¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 10.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 81¢ | 81% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 12.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 14.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 88¢ | 88% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 16.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 91¢ | 91% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 18.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 93¢ | 93% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 20.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 95¢ | 95% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 22.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 24.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Will the OKC Thunder cover 26.5 vs the POR Trail Blazers in OKC Thunder vs. POR Trail Blazers? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.