What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 68¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $1.52.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 70% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 68%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Exact Margin of Victory: Arizona State by 25+ on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Arizona State wins by a margin of 25+ points in the Arizona State vs UCF college football game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 3:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

68%

Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

64% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
68¢ (now)	2.1¢	$1.52	70.1%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Exact Margin of Victory: Arizona State by 25+	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Arizona State by 7-12	18¢	18%	1.4¢	—	36%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Arizona State by 13-18	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Arizona State by 19-24	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Arizona State by 1-6	22¢	22%	1.6¢	—	44%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: UCF by 1-6	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: UCF by 7-12	22¢	22%	1.6¢	—	44%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: UCF by 19-24	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: UCF by 13-18	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: UCF by 25+	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: UCF	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Arizona State	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Neither Team	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Overtime?: Over 0.5	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Touchdowns: Over 2.5	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Touchdowns: Over 1.5	86¢	86%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Touchdowns: Over 3.5	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Touchdowns: Over 1.5	96¢	96%	0.4¢	—	8%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Touchdowns: Over 2.5	81¢	81%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Touchdowns: Over 3.5	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns: Over 0.5	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 225.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 200.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 250.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 225.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 250.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 200.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 0.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 2.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 0.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 2.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.