What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 38¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.94.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 40% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 38%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Exact Margin of Victory: LV Raiders by 15+ on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Las Vegas Raiders wins by a margin of 15+ points in the Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos professional football game scheduled for November 22, 2026 at 4:25PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

38%

Median YES price across 53 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

76% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
38¢ (now)	2.2¢	$2.94	40.2%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Exact Margin of Victory: LV Raiders by 15+	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: LV Raiders by 7-14	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: LV Raiders by 1-6	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Tie	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: DEN Broncos by 1-6	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: DEN Broncos by 7-14	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: DEN Broncos by 15+	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Las Vegas Raiders	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Denver Broncos	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Neither Team	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Las Vegas Raiders	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Denver Broncos	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Neither Team	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 250.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 350.5	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 450.5	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 250.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 350.5	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 450.5	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns: Over 0.5	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Total Successful Two-Point Conversions: Over 0.5	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Will there be a Safety?: Over 0.5	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Las Vegas Raiders	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Denver Broncos	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Neither Team	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Las Vegas Raiders	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Denver Broncos	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Neither Team	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Las Vegas Raiders	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Denver Broncos	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Neither Team	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Las Vegas Raiders	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Denver Broncos	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Neither Team	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 07, 02:25 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 53 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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