What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 49¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.42.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 49%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Regular Season Passing TDs O/U on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Tyler Shough records over 20.5 passing touchdowns in the 2026 Pro Football regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

49%

Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

98% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
49¢ (now)	2.4¢	$2.42	51.4%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	82¢	82%	1.4¢	—	36%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	31¢	31%	2.0¢	—	62%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	85¢	85%	1.2¢	—	30%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	85¢	85%	1.2¢	—	30%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	84¢	84%	1.3¢	—	32%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	43¢	43%	2.3¢	—	86%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	84¢	84%	1.3¢	—	32%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	70¢	70%	2.0¢	—	60%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	85¢	85%	1.2¢	—	30%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Regular Season Passing TDs O/U	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.