What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 29¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $3.37.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 31% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 29%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will Ciryl Gane win by KO, TKO, or DQ in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Ciryl Gane wins by KO/TKO/DQ in the Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit UFC fight scheduled for November 14. If the fight is cancelled or postponed by more than two days, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

Market says (typical open contract)

29%

Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

58% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
29¢ (now)	2.0¢	$3.37	31.0%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO, TKO, or DQ in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane win by submission in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane win by decision in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win by KO, TKO, or DQ in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win by submission in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win by decision in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end in a draw?	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will the fight go the distance in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end by KO, TKO, or DQ?	60¢	60%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end by submission?	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end by decision?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end before round 2?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end before round 3?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end before round 4?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit end before round 5?	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane win in Round 1?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane win in Round 2?	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane win in Round 3?	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane win in Round 4?	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane win in Round 5?	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win in Round 1?	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win in Round 2?	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win in Round 3?	18¢	18%	1.4¢	—	36%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win in Round 4?	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Josh Hokit win in Round 5?	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit go to a decision, draw, or no contest?	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.