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Will the first quarter end tied on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner of the first quarter in the Hawai'i vs Nevada college football game scheduled for November 21, 2026 at 10:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If both teams score the same number of points in the first quarter, the market will settle to Tie. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)
99%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
99¢ (now)0.1¢$0.0599.1%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the first quarter end tied?35¢35%2.2¢—70%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Hawai'i win the second half?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will the second half end tied?35¢35%2.2¢—70%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Nevada win the first half?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will the first half end tied?35¢35%2.2¢—70%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Nevada win the second half?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Hawai'i win the first half?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Hawai'i win the first quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Nevada win the first quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Hawai'i win the second quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Nevada win the third quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will the second quarter end tied?35¢35%2.2¢—70%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Hawai'i win the fourth quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Hawai'i win the third quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will the third quarter end tied?35¢35%2.2¢—70%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Nevada win the second quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will the fourth quarter end tied?35¢35%2.2¢—70%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC
Will Nevada win the fourth quarter?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Dec 06, 08:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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