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Will Bonaire win against Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations League match scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Bonaire vs Cuba CONCACAF Nations League match scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 3:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is tied following 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market will settle to Tie. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from CONCACAF.

Market says (typical open contract)
56%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
88% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
56¢ (now)2.3¢$2.0958.3%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Bonaire win against Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations League match scheduled for Nov 12, 2026?56¢56%2.3¢—88%0Nov 27, 01:00 UTC
Will the CONCACAF Nations League match Bonaire vs Cuba scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 end in a draw?48¢48%2.4¢—96%0Nov 27, 01:00 UTC
Will Cuba win against Bonaire in the CONCACAF Nations League match scheduled for Nov 12, 2026?98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Nov 27, 01:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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