What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 13¢, about 1¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.13.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 14% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 13%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will Luxembourg win against Estonia in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 13, 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Luxembourg vs Estonia UEFA Nations League match scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 2:45PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is tied following 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market will settle to Tie. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UEFA.

Market says (typical open contract)

13%

Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

26% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
13¢ (now)	1.1¢	$4.13	14.1%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Luxembourg win against Estonia in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 13, 2026?	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will the UEFA Nations League match Luxembourg vs Estonia scheduled for Nov 13, 2026 end in a draw?	31¢	31%	2.0¢	—	62%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Estonia win against Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 13, 2026?	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish Draw 0-0?	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish LUX wins 1-0?	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish EST wins 1-0?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish Draw 1-1?	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish LUX wins 2-0?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish EST wins 2-0?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish LUX wins 2-1?	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish EST wins 2-1?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish Draw 2-2?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish LUX wins 3-0?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish EST wins 3-0?	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish LUX wins 3-1?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish EST wins 3-1?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish LUX wins 3-2?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish EST wins 3-2?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST finish Other?	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Luxembourg lead Estonia at halftime?	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will LUX vs EST be tied at halftime?	51¢	51%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Estonia lead Luxembourg at halftime?	23¢	23%	1.7¢	—	46%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Luxembourg win the second half against Estonia?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will the second half of LUX vs EST be a draw?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Estonia win the second half against Luxembourg?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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