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Will Danubio FC win against Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera Uruguay match scheduled for Nov 15, 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Danubio FC vs Liverpool Montevideo Primera Uruguay match scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 2:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is tied following 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market will settle to Tie. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from AUF.

Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
58% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
29¢ (now)2.0¢$3.3731.0%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Danubio FC win against Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera Uruguay match scheduled for Nov 15, 2026?23¢23%1.7¢—46%0Nov 29, 19:30 UTC
Will the Primera Uruguay match Danubio FC vs Liverpool Montevideo scheduled for Nov 15, 2026 end in a draw?29¢29%2.0¢—58%0Nov 29, 19:30 UTC
Will Liverpool Montevideo win against Danubio FC in the Primera Uruguay match scheduled for Nov 15, 2026?55¢55%2.4¢—90%0Nov 29, 19:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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