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Top Artist in the US 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Lady Gaga is ranked the top artist in the US on Spotify in 2026. Outcome verified by Spotify. The relevant ranking is the 2026 edition of the Spotify Top Artists in the US ranking released as part of the annual Spotify Wrapped campaign (see past edition: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This ranking will be used for resolution even if it is released before the end of calendar year 2026. Note: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Top Artist in the US 2026?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Dec 17, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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