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Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 Nebraska US Senate election has a smaller margin of victory than the 2026 Kansas US Senate election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities. The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, the marg
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $4.51 | 5.5% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska? | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska? | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 15, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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