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CPI MoM in October on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI MoM) for October 2026 is above 0.6%. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Consumer Price Index release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on November 10, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the BLS does not publish CPI MoM for October 2026 on the Consumer Price Index scheduled release date, the first figure officially published by BLS for CPI MoM in October 2026 will be used for settlement. If no qualifying figure is published w

Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$4.701.1%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
CPI MoM in October1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October53¢53%2.4¢—94%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI MoM in October1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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