Markets › Polymarket US › Macro
CPI YoY in October on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if U.S. inflation, before seasonal adjustment, over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 (CPI YoY) is above 4.3%. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Consumer Price Index release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on November 10, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the BLS does not publish CPI YoY for October 2026 on the Consumer Price Index scheduled release date, the first figure officially published by BLS for CPI YoY in October 2026 will be used for settlement. If no qualifying figure is published within three months of the
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $4.08 | 15.1% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI YoY in October | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 12¢ | 12% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 22¢ | 22% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 33¢ | 33% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 14¢ | 14% | 1.1¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 19¢ | 19% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CPI YoY in October | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 25, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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