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Brazil, Israel, & US Senate Elections Combo on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, Naftali Bennett is the first individual to formally assume the office of Prime Minister of Israel as part of government formation following the next Israeli Parliamentary election, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. In the event that the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election is rescheduled, this market will settle based on the results of the next Brazilian Presidential Election to be held within two years of October 4, 2026. Any acting, interim, or caretaker Prime Ministe

Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
98¢ (now)0.2¢$0.1098.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Brazil, Israel, & US Senate Elections Combo99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC
Brazil, Israel, & US Senate Elections Combo97¢97%0.3¢—6%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC
Brazil, Israel, & US Senate Elections Combo98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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