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Who Will Announce a Presidential Run in 2026 on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Michelle Obama announces they will run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from public announcements and communications from Michelle Obama. To qualify, Michelle Obama, or their authorized representatives, must publicly and unambiguously declare that Michelle Obama will be a candidate in the 2028 United States Presidential election, including a run for a party's nomination. Official candidacy filing is not required. Conditional, non-definitive, or exploratory statements do not qualify, including statements that Michelle Obama is considering or open to a run, l
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $4.61 | 3.3% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who Will Announce a Presidential Run in 2026? | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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