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US Measles Cases in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the total number of confirmed Measles cases reported in the United States for 2026 is greater than 7500 at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Outcome sourced from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The applicable count will be the count reported on the CDC Measles Cases and Outbreaks page (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).

Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
46¢ (now)2.4¢$2.5748.4%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
US Measles Cases in 2026?46¢46%2.4¢—92%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
US Measles Cases in 2026?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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