What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 11¢, about 1¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.23.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 12% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 11%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Crypto

ETH Up or Down, monthly on Polymarket US

A new market every monthly. "Up" pays $1 if the CF Benchmarks ETH index, averaged over the last 60 seconds of the window, is above the price at the open; "Down" pays $1 otherwise.

Market says (typical open contract)

11%

Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

50%

Five-minute and fifteen-minute moves have no measurable predictability; our own 30-day test of the most popular entry rule lost on 76% of trades.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

A coin flip with a cover charge. Skill contributes nothing at this horizon; the fee always does.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
11¢ (now)	0.9¢	$4.23	11.9%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
How high will ETH get in November?	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How high will ETH get in November?	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How high will ETH get in November?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How high will ETH get in November?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How high will ETH get in November?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How high will ETH get in November?	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How high will ETH get in November?	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	42¢	42%	2.3¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	66¢	66%	2.1¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How high will ETH get in November?	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC
How low will ETH get in November?	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	100%	Dec 01, 05:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.