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US GDP Growth in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the rate of real U.S. GDP growth for 2026 is above 2.6%. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The rate of real U.S. GDP growth for 2026 refers to the comparison between the annual level of GDP for 2025 and the annual level of GDP for 2026. Settlement is based on the Q4 Advance Estimate GDP release published by the BEA, currently scheduled for early 2027. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the figure is not published on the scheduled date, the first officially published figure for the rate of real U.S. GDP growth in 2026 will be used. If no qualifying GDP figure is released within thr

Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 0 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢ (now)2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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