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US Birth Rate in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the general fertility rate for the United States for 2026, as reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in Births: Provisional Data for 2026, is greater than or equal to 51.5 births per 1,000 females aged 1544. Outcome sourced from the NCHS at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This market settles based on the general fertility rate published in the National Center for Health Statistics' Births: Provisional Data series, viewable at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm. Each year's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If NCHS does not publish the general fertility rate for 2026 in Bi

Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
94¢ (now)0.5¢$0.2994.5%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)94¢94%0.5¢—12%0Apr 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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