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How Many US Homes Built in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed in the United States for 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in the New Residential Construction release for December 2026, is greater than or equal to 1,200,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau. This market settles based on the estimated annual total of privately-owned housing units completed (not seasonally adjusted), published in the U.S. Census Bureau's New Residential Construction release, currently in Table 5b, viewable at https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html. Each year's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. I

Market says (typical open contract)
97%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
97¢ (now)0.3¢$0.1497.3%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
How Many US Homes Built in 2026?97¢97%0.3¢—6%0Feb 03, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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