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Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Itamar Ben Gvir is the first individual to formally assume the office of Prime Minister of Israel as part of government formation following the next Israeli Parliamentary election. Outcome sourced from the Government of Israel. Any acting, interim, or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the settlement of this market. If the next Israeli parliamentary election takes place, and a new election is called prior to any individual formally assuming the office of Prime Minister of Israel, this market will settle based on the next individual to assume the office as part of government formation following the new election.

Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$4.701.1%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election69¢69%2.0¢—62%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Israel After the Next Election21¢21%1.6¢—42%0Nov 02, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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