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Senate Majority Leader in the 120th Congress on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Tom Cotton is the next person selected as Senate Majority Leader for the 120th United States Congress. Outcome sourced from the Senate Democratic Caucus, the Senate Republican Conference, and the United States Senate. A person will be considered selected as Senate Majority Leader when they are elected to the position by the Senate Democratic Caucus or the Senate Republican Conference, depending on which party holds majority status in the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. A selection made before the 120th Congress convenes will qualify. Acting or interim leaders will not qualify. If no such Senate Majority Leader is selected by December 31, 2028,

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)0.2¢$4.662.2%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Senate Majority Leader in the 120th Congress?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 18, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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