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Jobs Numbers in November 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the change in total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for November 2026 is above 100,000. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Employment Situation Report release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on December 4, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If no qualifying change in U.S. nonfarm payroll employment figure for the specified month is released within three months of the Employment Situation Report scheduled release date, this market will resolve based

Market says (typical open contract)
47%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
47¢ (now)2.4¢$2.5249.4%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Jobs Numbers in November 202647¢47%2.4¢—94%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
Jobs Numbers in November 202674¢74%1.8¢—52%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC
Jobs Numbers in November 202636¢36%2.2¢—72%0Dec 19, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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