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Carlos Ulberg Next UFC Opponent on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Carlos Ulberg's next UFC bout is officially announced to be against Jan Blachowicz by December 31, 2027. If the UFC does not officially announce a fight for Carlos Ulberg by December 31, 2027, this market will settle to No. This market will settle based on an official announcement from the UFC, regardless of whether the fight occurs. Outcome sourced from UFC.

Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)1.6¢$3.7123.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Carlos Ulberg Next UFC Opponent22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Carlos Ulberg Next UFC Opponent18¢18%1.4¢—36%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Carlos Ulberg Next UFC Opponent44¢44%2.3¢—88%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Carlos Ulberg Next UFC Opponent9¢9%0.8¢—18%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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