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Trump Resigns on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Donald Trump resigns as the President of the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Donald Trump and the White House. Resignation refers to Donald Trump formally ceasing to hold the position of President of the United States through self-initiated means, including, but not limited to, resignation and retirement. Externally-imposed departures and announcements of future resignations do not qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. Ceasing to hold the specified posit

Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)1.6¢$3.7123.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Trump Resigns?5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Trump Resigns?22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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