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Zelenskyy Officially Out as Ukraine President on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally ceases to hold the position of President of Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine. Zelenskyy must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, replacement by a successor who formally assumes the position, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary ch

Market says (typical open contract)
21%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
42% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
21¢ (now)1.6¢$3.7522.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Zelenskyy Officially Out as Ukraine President?21¢21%1.6¢—42%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC
Zelenskyy Officially Out as Ukraine President?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jul 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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