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How Low Will Trumps Approval Rating Get by Dec. 31 on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Donald Trumps approval rating, as published by RealClearPolitics, is less than or equal to 34.0% at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from RealClearPolling. Donald Trumps approval rating is the figure published in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval," published by RealClearPolling at: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ (now) | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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