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GTA VI Released By on Polymarket US

If Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) in the United States by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by Rockstar Games. Releases refers to Rockstar Games (or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive) making GTA VI generally available to the public for purchase, download, or play on at least one platform. The release must be a full commercial release. Release-date announcements, trailers, pre-order or wishlist availability, leaks, alpha or beta releases, early access, preview, prototype, or other forms of pre-release availability will not qualify.

Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$4.701.1%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
GTA VI Released By1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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