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2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party receives the most valid votes for U.S. Representative of any party in the 2026 United States Midterm Election. Outcome sourced from the United States Clerk of the House. Party vote totals will be inclusive of all votes for the partys candidates for U.S. Representative (excluding votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner), as reflected in the certified results from the United States Clerk of the House. If multiple parties tie for the most votes for U.S. Representative, Yes contract holders for each tied party receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied parties, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.

Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)0.4¢$4.564.4%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Winner?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Winner?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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