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Where will it rain on Nov 9 on Polymarket US

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New York records rain on November 9, 2026, meaning the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report for Central Park, New York (KNYC) reports measurable precipitation for that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation is a PRECIPITATION (IN) figure of 0.01 inches or more for November 9, 2026 in the governing Daily Climate Report, evaluated at the precision the report gives. A trace ("T") does not count. The figure is total liquid-equivalent precipitation, so snow, sleet, hail or freezing rain included in it counts; an entry in the WEATHER CONDITIONS section without a qualifying PRECIPITATION (IN) figure, snow depth, sno

Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)0.9¢$4.2810.9%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Where will it rain on Nov 9?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 9?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 9?5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Nov 24, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 9?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 9?57¢57%2.3¢—86%0Nov 24, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 9?3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 24, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 10?5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Nov 25, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 10?22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Nov 25, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 10?5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Nov 25, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 10?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 10?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 11?10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Nov 26, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 11?12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Nov 26, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 11?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 26, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 11?11¢11%0.9¢—22%0Nov 26, 04:59 UTC
Where will it rain on Nov 11?10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Nov 26, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.