What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 32¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $3.23.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 34% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 32%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Culture

Oscar Nominees: Best Casting on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if The Odyssey is officially nominated for Best Casting at the 99th Oscars. Outcome sourced from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Market says (typical open contract)

32%

Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

64% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
32¢ (now)	2.1¢	$3.23	34.1%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	91¢	91%	0.8¢	—	18%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	76¢	76%	1.7¢	—	48%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	58¢	58%	2.3¢	—	84%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	34¢	34%	2.1¢	—	68%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	34¢	34%	2.1¢	—	68%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	34¢	34%	2.1¢	—	68%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	18¢	18%	1.4¢	—	36%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC
Oscar Nominees: Best Casting	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Feb 05, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.