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Major League Soccer Champion on Polymarket US

Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup, scheduled to conclude December 18, 2026? If the event is postponed, delayed, or rescheduled, the expiration date will be amended to align with the new event date. If the event is not rescheduled within two weeks of the originally scheduled date, the instrument may settle at last fair market prices. If the event is canceled, the instrument may settle at last fair market prices. If the team is eliminated from contention, the instrument will settle to $0.00. If multiple teams are declared as having attained victory, holders receive $1.00 divided by the number of such teams, rounded down to the nearest tick.

Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)0.4¢$4.564.4%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Major League Soccer Champion16¢16%1.2¢—31%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion3¢3%0.2¢—5%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion24¢24%1.7¢—47%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion6¢6%0.5¢—11%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion21¢21%1.6¢—43%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion4¢4%0.3¢—7%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion8¢8%0.7¢—15%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion5¢5%0.4¢—10%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion10¢10%0.9¢—21%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion5¢5%0.5¢—11%0Jan 01, 21:20 UTC
Major League Soccer Champion2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Dec 01, 22:15 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.