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Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Tesla officially launches a USD-denominated stablecoin by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM (ET). Outcome sourced from official communications from Tesla. A qualifying launch occurs only when the token is publicly transferable on mainnet and tradable through a publicly accessible venue, whether a centralized exchange, decentralized exchange, or on-chain liquidity pool. Testnet deployments, private distributions, airdrop claims without public transferability, token-generation announcements, premarket allocations, and non-transferable points do not constitute a qualifying launch. The token must be launched directly by Tesla, or by a subsidiary, affiliate, or

Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
42¢ (now)2.3¢$2.7644.3%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026?44¢44%2.3¢—88%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026?42¢42%2.3¢—84%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026?44¢44%2.3¢—88%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026?39¢39%2.3¢—78%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026?44¢44%2.3¢—88%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026?41¢41%2.3¢—82%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Will a Mag7 Company Launch a USD Stablecoin by December 31, 2026?40¢40%2.3¢—80%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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