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TIME Person of the Year 2026 on Polymarket US

If Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is TIME Person of the Year in 2026, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by TIME Magazine. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they are explicitly named by TIME as TIME Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple persons, concepts, groups, entities, or things are named TIME Person of the Year, each such named person, concept, group, entity, or thing will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a non-human concept, group, entity, or thing, a listed person will still be considered to be TIME Person of the Year if the person is directly associated with the concept,

Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)0.5¢$4.515.5%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
TIME Person of the Year 20265¢5%0.5¢—10%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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