What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 55¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.14.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 57% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 55%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 8.5 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if California and Virginia combine for over 8.5 points in the first half of the California vs Virginia college football game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 3:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

55%

Median YES price across 103 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

90% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
55¢ (now)	2.4¢	$2.14	57.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 8.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 15.5?	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 19.5?	86¢	86%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 22.5?	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 23.5?	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 24.5?	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 26.5?	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 25.5?	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 29.5?	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 33.5?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 40.5?	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 22.5?	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 23.5?	64¢	64%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 24.5?	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 25.5?	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 26.5?	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 10.5?	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 13.5?	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 11.5?	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 12.5?	52¢	52%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 14.5?	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 10.5?	80¢	80%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 11.5?	80¢	80%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 12.5?	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 14.5?	54¢	54%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 13.5?	72¢	72%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 10.5?	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 13.5?	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 14.5?	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 12.5?	54¢	54%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 11.5?	59¢	59%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 10.5?	72¢	72%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 11.5?	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 12.5?	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 13.5?	62¢	62%	2.2¢	—	76%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 14.5?	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 9.5?	87¢	87%	1.1¢	—	26%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 13.5?	73¢	73%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 16.5?	60¢	60%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC
Will the total in California vs. Virginia be more than 5.5?	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 29, 01:30 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 103 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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