What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 58¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.00.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 60% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 58%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 2.5 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if MIN Wild and MTL Canadiens combine for over 2.5 goals in the MIN Wild vs MTL Canadiens NHL game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 7:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If a shootout determines the winner, the shootout will count as one goal for the winning team. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)

58%

Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

84% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
58¢ (now)	2.3¢	$2.00	60.3%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 2.5?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 3.5?	88¢	88%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 4.5?	80¢	80%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 5.5?	58¢	58%	2.3¢	—	84%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 6.5?	47¢	47%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 7.5?	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 8.5?	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will the total in MIN vs MTL be more than 9.5?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 0.5 goals in the first period?	92¢	92%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 1.5 goals in the first period?	63¢	63%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 2.5 goals in the first period?	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 3.5 goals in the first period?	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 0.5 goals in the second period?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 1.5 goals in the second period?	63¢	63%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 2.5 goals in the second period?	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 3.5 goals in the second period?	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 0.5 goals in the third period?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 1.5 goals in the third period?	70¢	70%	2.0¢	—	60%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 2.5 goals in the third period?	42¢	42%	2.3¢	—	84%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN vs MTL have more than 3.5 goals in the third period?	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN Wild score more than 0.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN Wild score more than 1.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	88¢	88%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN Wild score more than 2.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	66¢	66%	2.1¢	—	68%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN Wild score more than 3.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN Wild score more than 4.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MIN Wild score more than 5.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MTL Canadiens score more than 0.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MTL Canadiens score more than 1.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	83¢	83%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MTL Canadiens score more than 2.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	62¢	62%	2.2¢	—	76%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MTL Canadiens score more than 3.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MTL Canadiens score more than 4.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	23¢	23%	1.7¢	—	46%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC
Will MTL Canadiens score more than 5.5 goals in MIN vs MTL?	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Nov 25, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.